Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Greig 51.1% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 78.2%
Defensive zone
Greig 79.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.5%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Tavares
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Tavares
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greig
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
Tavares
Greig
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
51.9% (347)
+5.8%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
66.7% (24)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
44.8% (87)
+7.4%
On power play, Greig has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greig
Home
57.4% (636)
50.4% (254)
Away
57.2% (612)
52.5% (204)
By Period
Tavares
Greig
P1
57.5%
45.9%
P2
56.9%
60.1%
P3
57.5%
49.2%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |