Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Greig 49.0% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.2%
Defensive zone
Greig 62.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 77.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Tavares
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Tavares
Greig
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Greig
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
4
Tavares
Greig
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
Greig
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
48.7% (1,144)
+5.3%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
56.8% (74)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
47.2% (178)
+3.3%
On even strength, Tavares has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greig
Home
56.1% (10,525)
49.9% (688)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
48.0% (708)
By Period
Tavares
Greig
P1
55.0%
46.0%
P2
54.1%
51.8%
P3
54.0%
49.1%
OT
55.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.7%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 07:11 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 13:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 17:06 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:40 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:35 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |