Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Colton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Colton 51.1% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 88.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 58.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 74.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Tavares
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
6
(19 meetings)
13
6
Tavares
Colton
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
0
Tavares
Colton
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
1
4
Tavares
Colton
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
2
Tavares
Colton
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
51.6% (1,803)
+2.4%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
48.8% (162)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
34.5% (29)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Colton is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,297).
Home / Away
Tavares
Colton
Home
56.1% (10,525)
52.0% (1,015)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
50.3% (979)
By Period
Tavares
Colton
P1
55.0%
53.7%
P2
54.1%
52.6%
P3
54.0%
47.9%
OT
55.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Colton
46.0%▲
44.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 06:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 15:27 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 09:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:41 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:23 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:52 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 08:10 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 19:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:30 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | John Tavares |