Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Greene 43.9% (+14.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 52.4%
Defensive zone
Greene 87.7%
Neutral zone
Greene 71.1%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 74.4%
25.6%
74.4%
Tavares
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Greene
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
0
3
Tavares
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Greene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
43.6% (512)
+14.1%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
46.8% (62)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
40.1% (167)
+12.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Greene is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greene
Home
57.4% (636)
47.4% (382)
Away
57.2% (612)
38.4% (359)
By Period
Tavares
Greene
P1
57.5%
46.8%
P2
56.9%
37.6%
P3
57.5%
45.2%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |