Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Greene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Greene 43.7% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 61.5%
Defensive zone
Greene 88.7%
Neutral zone
Greene 72.1%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Tavares
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Tavares
Greene
Last 8: Tavares 3-5 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
Greene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greene
0
3
Tavares
Greene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Tavares
Greene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
43.2% (530)
+10.8%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
46.8% (62)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
40.1% (167)
+10.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Greene is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (565).
Home / Away
Tavares
Greene
Home
56.1% (10,525)
47.4% (382)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
38.2% (377)
By Period
Tavares
Greene
P1
55.0%
46.1%
P2
54.1%
37.6%
P3
54.0%
45.2%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:23 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:01 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 02:53 | Defensive | Ryan Greene |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |