John Tavares vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

John Tavares holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Tavares 56.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+10.9%)
H2H factor Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone Tavares 87.3%
Defensive zone Tavares 73.9%
Neutral zone Tavares 88.9%
Result John Tavares favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Tavares Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3 - 0 (3 meetings)
3
0
Tavares Nugent-Hopkins

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares Nugent-Hopkins
1 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
46.0% (250)
+11.7%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
70.6% (17)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
31.8% (22)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +20.4% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
57.4% (636)
50.3% (175)
Away
57.2% (612)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Tavares
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
57.5%
48.5%
P2
56.9%
45.9%
P3
57.5%
46.5%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
41.7%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%
54.0%
57.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%
48.5%
46.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Feb 3, 2026 3 09:50 Defensive John Tavares
Feb 3, 2026 3 06:44 Offensive John Tavares
Dec 13, 2025 2 18:01 Neutral John Tavares