Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Poehling 48.0% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 75.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 60.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Tavares
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
10
(21 meetings)
11
10
Tavares
Poehling
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
2
Tavares
Poehling
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
7
Tavares
Poehling
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Poehling
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
50.4% (680)
+7.3%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
58.3% (12)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
38.8% (219)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Tavares
Poehling
Home
57.4% (636)
47.4% (422)
Away
57.2% (612)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Tavares
Poehling
P1
57.5%
53.3%
P2
56.9%
40.3%
P3
57.5%
50.0%
OT
57.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | OT | 02:08 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:17 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 12:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |