Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 17 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Poehling 48.3% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 33-18 in 51 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 98.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 67.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Tavares
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
18
(51 meetings)
33
18
Tavares
Poehling
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
15
2
Tavares
Poehling
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
8
13
Tavares
Poehling
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
10
3
Tavares
Poehling
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
49.6% (2,780)
+4.4%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
51.6% (93)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
41.7% (635)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Poehling is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,357).
Home / Away
Tavares
Poehling
Home
56.1% (10,525)
49.3% (1,706)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
47.2% (1,802)
By Period
Tavares
Poehling
P1
55.0%
50.8%
P2
54.1%
47.1%
P3
54.0%
47.2%
OT
55.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | OT | 02:08 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 19:29 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 19:25 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 06:11 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 04:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:17 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 12:25 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 13:48 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |