Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Carrick 54.2% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.8%
Defensive zone
Carrick 79.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 52.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Tavares
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Tavares
Carrick
Last 8: Tavares 4-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Tavares
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Tavares
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
55.5% (470)
+2.2%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
66.7% (3)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
50.0% (58)
+2.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carrick
Home
57.4% (636)
58.6% (261)
Away
57.2% (612)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Tavares
Carrick
P1
57.5%
55.9%
P2
56.9%
53.5%
P3
57.5%
55.6%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |