Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Carrick 52.2% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 77.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 57.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Tavares
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
8
(22 meetings)
14
8
Tavares
Carrick
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
11
0
Tavares
Carrick
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
4
Tavares
Carrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Tavares
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
52.2% (2,544)
+1.8%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
61.3% (75)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
50.8% (435)
-0.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Tavares
Carrick
Home
56.1% (10,525)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Tavares
Carrick
P1
55.0%
51.8%
P2
54.1%
52.3%
P3
54.0%
52.6%
OT
55.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.7%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 19:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 2 | 16:08 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |