Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +16.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Jarvis 46.3% (+16.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jarvis 61.9%
Defensive zone
Jarvis 52.7%
Neutral zone
Jarvis 59.2%
Result
Seth Jarvis favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Tavares
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Tavares
Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarvis
0
1
Tavares
Jarvis
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
42.6% (54)
+15.1%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
33.3% (6)
+22.7%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
40.0% (15)
+12.2%
On power play, Tavares has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Tavares shoots left. Jarvis is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Tavares
Jarvis
Home
57.4% (636)
43.6% (39)
Away
57.2% (612)
38.9% (36)
By Period
Tavares
Jarvis
P1
57.5%
36.0%
P2
56.9%
48.3%
P3
57.5%
36.8%
OT
57.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
23.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |