Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Jarvis 42.5% (+13.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 90.9%
Defensive zone
Tavares 71.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 88.3%
Result
John Tavares favored at 84.6%
84.6%
15.4%
Tavares
Jarvis
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Tavares
Jarvis
Last 8: Tavares 6-2 Jarvis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
Jarvis
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Jarvis
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Jarvis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Jarvis
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
41.8% (354)
+12.2%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
43.7% (119)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
38.2% (157)
+12.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jarvis shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Jarvis is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Tavares
Jarvis
Home
56.1% (10,525)
43.8% (336)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
38.4% (294)
By Period
Tavares
Jarvis
P1
55.0%
39.5%
P2
54.1%
39.5%
P3
54.0%
45.8%
OT
55.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
38.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Jarvis
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Seth Jarvis |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 2 | 10:16 | Neutral | Seth Jarvis |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |