Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 49 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 67-61 in 128 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 62.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 73.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 63.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Tavares
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
61
-
67
(128 meetings)
61
67
Tavares
Stamkos
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
32
18
Tavares
Stamkos
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
14
35
Tavares
Stamkos
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
15
14
Tavares
Stamkos
29 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
50.5% (9,825)
+3.5%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
55.2% (1,729)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
49.6% (827)
+0.9%
On even strength, Tavares has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Tavares shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stamkos
Home
56.1% (10,525)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Tavares
Stamkos
P1
55.0%
49.2%
P2
54.1%
52.7%
P3
54.0%
50.9%
OT
55.9%
54.3%
Final 5 min
54.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 13:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 14:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 03:31 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 16:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 16:38 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 03:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:08 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | John Tavares |