Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.3% vs 58.1%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 56.8% vs Hertl 57.5% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 55.1%
Defensive zone
Tavares 55.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 55.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Tavares
Hertl
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Tavares
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
2
Tavares
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (975)
58.7% (858)
-1.0%
Power Play
56.0% (250)
55.8% (285)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
62.9% (35)
-10.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (811).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
57.4% (636)
60.1% (599)
Away
57.2% (612)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
57.5%
52.4%
P2
56.9%
63.9%
P3
57.5%
58.5%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |