Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.3%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (53% H2H, 34 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Hertl 54.3% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 43-40 in 83 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 62.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Tavares
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
40
(83 meetings)
43
40
Tavares
Hertl
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
18
16
Tavares
Hertl
34 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
10
9
Tavares
Hertl
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
15
15
Tavares
Hertl
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,169)
53.9% (8,303)
+0.1%
Power Play
56.4% (4,298)
59.2% (1,995)
-2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (624)
46.3% (806)
+4.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,550).
Tavares shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Tavares
Hertl
Home
56.1% (10,525)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
52.7% (10,595)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Tavares
Hertl
P1
55.0%
53.6%
P2
54.1%
54.2%
P3
54.0%
55.3%
OT
55.9%
46.9%
Final 5 min
54.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 17:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 03:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 02:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 05:16 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 04:48 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 17:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2024 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:07 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |