Jonathan Marchessault vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +24.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 40.1% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-24.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marchessault 69.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.0%
Neutral zone
Marchessault 67.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Marchessault
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
25.4% (63)
49.2% (1,266)
-23.8%
Power Play
25.0% (4)
54.9% (193)
-29.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marchessault is 27.3% vs right-shot opponents (11).
Marchessault shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Home
30.0% (30)
50.9% (740)
Away
21.6% (37)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Marchessault
MacKinnon
P1
15.6%
50.9%
P2
34.6%
51.8%
P3
33.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
28.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
25.4%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |