Jonathan Marchessault vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 49.6% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (-3.4%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Marchessault
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (16)
49.1% (825)
-5.3%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
65.4% (130)
+1.3%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marchessault is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (4).
Marchessault shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.1% vs right-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Home
46.2% (13)
52.6% (489)
Away
50.0% (6)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Marchessault
MacKinnon
P1
55.6%
50.3%
P2
20.0%
52.6%
P3
50.0%
49.2%
OT
100.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
25.0%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
36.0%▲
34.0%
47.4%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%