Jonathan Marchessault vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 46.7% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-13.3%)
Offensive zone
Marchessault 50.7%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Marchessault
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
35.3% (34)
49.7% (1,038)
-14.4%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
63.7% (157)
+3.0%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marchessault is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (12).
Marchessault shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Home
40.0% (25)
53.1% (618)
Away
33.3% (12)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Marchessault
MacKinnon
P1
50.0%
49.3%
P2
30.8%
53.0%
P3
22.2%
50.7%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
12.5%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
37.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%