Jonathan Marchessault vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +20.3% FO% edge overall. Marchessault wins 40.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 46.7% vs Hertl 57.5% (-20.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.1%
Neutral zone
Marchessault 53.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Marchessault
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Marchessault
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Marchessault
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
35.3% (34)
58.7% (858)
-23.4%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
55.8% (285)
+10.9%
On even strength, Hertl has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Marchessault is 40.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Marchessault shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Marchessault
Hertl
Home
40.0% (25)
60.1% (599)
Away
33.3% (12)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Marchessault
Hertl
P1
50.0%
52.4%
P2
30.8%
63.9%
P3
22.2%
58.5%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
12.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
37.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |