Jonathan Marchessault vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Marchessault wins 39.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 42.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Marchessault 86.7%
Defensive zone
Marchessault 66.1%
Neutral zone
Marchessault 91.4%
Result
Jonathan Marchessault favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
Marchessault
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
15
(23 meetings)
8
15
Marchessault
Hertl
Last 10: Marchessault 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchessault
2
1
Marchessault
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
8
Marchessault
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
6
Marchessault
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (1,441)
53.9% (8,303)
-12.5%
Power Play
44.3% (264)
59.2% (1,995)
-14.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
46.3% (806)
-1.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Marchessault is 39.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,122).
Marchessault shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Marchessault
Hertl
Home
42.6% (892)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
41.0% (822)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Marchessault
Hertl
P1
43.3%
53.6%
P2
42.2%
54.2%
P3
39.9%
55.3%
OT
42.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
43.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
41.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 24, 2022 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 1 | 05:17 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 1 | 06:01 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 07:54 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 00:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 00:10 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 1 | 10:22 | Defensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 1 | 02:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 8, 2018 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |