Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Staal 54.6% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 52.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 79.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 59.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Toews
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Toews
Staal
Last 5: Toews 2-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Staal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
1
Toews
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
2
Toews
Staal
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
56.2% (989)
+6.4%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
66.0% (159)
-6.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
42.7% (253)
+4.2%
On power play, Staal has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Home / Away
Toews
Staal
Home
61.1% (455)
55.4% (699)
Away
62.1% (448)
54.4% (702)
By Period
Toews
Staal
P1
59.7%
55.7%
P2
66.7%
54.7%
P3
58.4%
53.4%
OT
80.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |