Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 54 meetings). Toews wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Staal 55.3% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 107-99 in 206 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 61.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 73.9%
Neutral zone
Staal 58.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Toews
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
99
-
107
(206 meetings)
99
107
Toews
Staal
Last 10: Toews 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
42
36
Toews
Staal
78 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
22
32
Toews
Staal
54 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
35
39
Toews
Staal
74 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,079)
55.9% (14,654)
+1.3%
Power Play
63.3% (3,254)
62.7% (1,762)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
47.9% (2,907)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,675).
Toews shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Home / Away
Toews
Staal
Home
59.7% (9,212)
56.4% (9,699)
Away
56.1% (8,962)
54.3% (9,689)
By Period
Toews
Staal
P1
58.6%
55.2%
P2
57.9%
55.9%
P3
57.3%
54.8%
OT
58.9%
56.2%
Final 5 min
58.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:31 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 21, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 04:29 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:20 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 13:31 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 04:15 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 04:04 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 2 | 16:14 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 3, 2021 | 1 | 19:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |