Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Toews wins 71.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Kapanen 47.1% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 93.3%
Defensive zone
Toews 91.4%
Neutral zone
Toews 93.6%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 93.0%
93.0%
7.0%
Toews
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Toews
Kapanen
Last 6: Toews 5-1 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
4
1
Toews
Kapanen
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Kapanen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
46.5% (527)
+16.1%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
54.8% (42)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
39.5% (38)
+7.4%
On even strength, Toews has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Toews is 71.3% vs right-shot opponents (303).
Toews shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Home / Away
Toews
Kapanen
Home
61.1% (455)
47.0% (315)
Away
62.1% (448)
46.2% (292)
By Period
Toews
Kapanen
P1
59.7%
41.6%
P2
66.7%
50.7%
P3
58.4%
47.6%
OT
80.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:49 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |