Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Toews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Toews
O'Reilly
Last 10: Toews 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Toews
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Toews
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
2
0
Toews
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
55.7% (856)
+6.9%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
57.5% (233)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
50.0% (144)
-3.1%
On even strength, Toews has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Toews
O'Reilly
Home
61.1% (455)
55.5% (616)
Away
62.1% (448)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Toews
O'Reilly
P1
59.7%
58.1%
P2
66.7%
54.9%
P3
58.4%
53.9%
OT
80.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 16:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 15:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 12:18 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:17 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:02 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |