Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Carrick 52.2% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 51.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 93.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 78.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 77.1%
22.9%
77.1%
Toews
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toews
Carrick
Last 5: Toews 1-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Toews
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Toews
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,079)
52.2% (2,544)
+5.0%
Power Play
63.3% (3,254)
61.3% (75)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
50.8% (435)
+2.8%
On even strength, Toews has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Toews is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (6,498).
Toews shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Toews
Carrick
Home
59.7% (9,212)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
56.1% (8,962)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Toews
Carrick
P1
58.6%
51.8%
P2
57.9%
52.3%
P3
57.3%
52.6%
OT
58.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |