Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Hertl 57.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 66.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 51.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Toews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Toews
Hertl
Last 10: Toews 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Toews
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Toews
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
58.7% (858)
+3.9%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
55.8% (285)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
62.9% (35)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Toews
Hertl
Home
61.1% (455)
60.1% (599)
Away
62.1% (448)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Toews
Hertl
P1
59.7%
52.4%
P2
66.7%
63.9%
P3
58.4%
58.5%
OT
80.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |