Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 43 meetings). Toews wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Hertl 54.3% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 66-35 in 101 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 86.9%
Defensive zone
Toews 79.9%
Neutral zone
Toews 85.0%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Toews
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
66
-
35
(101 meetings)
66
35
Toews
Hertl
Last 10: Toews 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
29
14
Toews
Hertl
43 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
20
8
Toews
Hertl
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
17
13
Toews
Hertl
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,079)
53.9% (8,303)
+3.3%
Power Play
63.3% (3,254)
59.2% (1,995)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
46.3% (806)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,675).
Toews shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Toews
Hertl
Home
59.7% (9,212)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
56.1% (8,962)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Toews
Hertl
P1
58.6%
53.6%
P2
57.9%
54.2%
P3
57.3%
55.3%
OT
58.9%
46.9%
Final 5 min
58.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 06:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 11:38 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 09:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |