Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +16.1% FO% edge overall. Toews wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 60.4% vs Gourde 46.0% (+16.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 89.4%
Defensive zone
Toews 54.6%
Neutral zone
Toews 74.4%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 67.8%
67.8%
32.2%
Toews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Toews
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Toews
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
62.6% (728)
47.2% (687)
+15.4%
Power Play
59.4% (143)
45.0% (20)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
46.9% (32)
33.0% (88)
+13.9%
On even strength, Toews has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Toews is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Toews shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Toews
Gourde
Home
61.1% (455)
44.4% (356)
Away
62.1% (448)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Toews
Gourde
P1
59.7%
42.2%
P2
66.7%
50.0%
P3
58.4%
44.5%
OT
80.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
61.6%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |