Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Toews wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 57.9% vs Gourde 48.2% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 19-11 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 97.1%
Defensive zone
Toews 79.5%
Neutral zone
Toews 93.3%
Result
Jonathan Toews favored at 89.7%
89.7%
10.3%
Toews
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
11
(30 meetings)
19
11
Toews
Gourde
Last 10: Toews 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
6
2
Toews
Gourde
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
6
4
Toews
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
7
5
Toews
Gourde
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (13,079)
48.4% (4,987)
+8.8%
Power Play
63.3% (3,254)
57.4% (376)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
53.6% (1,810)
40.0% (555)
+13.6%
On penalty kill, Toews has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Toews is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,675).
Toews shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
Toews
Gourde
Home
59.7% (9,212)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
56.1% (8,962)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Toews
Gourde
P1
58.6%
49.8%
P2
57.9%
47.5%
P3
57.3%
47.5%
OT
58.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
58.2%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
62.0%▼
63.5%
57.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:13 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 01:24 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 07:00 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 04:51 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:53 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 01:36 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2022 | OT | 01:19 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Nov 17, 2021 | 3 | 09:01 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 12:00 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 11:50 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 21, 2018 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |