Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.6%). Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Stenlund 54.2% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 77.6%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 68.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 53.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Staal
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Staal
Stenlund
Last 6: Staal 4-2 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
0
Staal
Stenlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Staal
Stenlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
1
Staal
Stenlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
56.2% (650)
+0.0%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
53.2% (47)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
51.6% (312)
-8.9%
On power play, Staal has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Stenlund is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (688).
Home / Away
Staal
Stenlund
Home
55.4% (699)
56.9% (483)
Away
54.4% (702)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Staal
Stenlund
P1
55.7%
54.2%
P2
54.7%
53.2%
P3
53.4%
56.9%
OT
70.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:42 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |