Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 18 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Stenlund 53.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 33-21 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 81.9%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 57.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Staal
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
21
(54 meetings)
33
21
Staal
Stenlund
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
10
8
Staal
Stenlund
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
12
6
Staal
Stenlund
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
11
7
Staal
Stenlund
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
55.3% (2,738)
+0.6%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
52.6% (116)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
50.4% (924)
-2.5%
On power play, Staal has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Staal shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,846).
Home / Away
Staal
Stenlund
Home
56.4% (9,699)
54.3% (1,873)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
53.8% (1,905)
By Period
Staal
Stenlund
P1
55.2%
56.2%
P2
55.9%
53.3%
P3
54.8%
53.0%
OT
56.2%
52.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 14:42 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 07:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:11 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:44 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 1 | 17:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 16:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:13 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:10 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 12:11 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 03:19 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 2 | 09:39 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |