Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Kastelic 58.1% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 58.7%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 83.7%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 63.6%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 71.9%
28.1%
71.9%
Staal
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Staal
Kastelic
Last 7: Staal 5-2 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Kastelic
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
60.8% (362)
-4.6%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
83.3% (6)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
56.2% (146)
-13.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Staal
Kastelic
Home
55.4% (699)
60.3% (242)
Away
54.4% (702)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Staal
Kastelic
P1
55.7%
58.9%
P2
54.7%
57.3%
P3
53.4%
64.0%
OT
70.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
56.7%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:05 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |