Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs McTavish 49.1% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 52.2%
Defensive zone
Staal 81.8%
Neutral zone
Staal 56.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Staal
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
8
(18 meetings)
10
8
Staal
McTavish
Last 10: Staal 7-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
2
Staal
McTavish
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
3
Staal
McTavish
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Staal
McTavish
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
47.6% (618)
+8.6%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
58.3% (103)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
33.3% (6)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Staal has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. McTavish is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Home / Away
Staal
McTavish
Home
55.4% (699)
52.2% (391)
Away
54.4% (702)
45.2% (336)
By Period
Staal
McTavish
P1
55.7%
50.2%
P2
54.7%
47.7%
P3
53.4%
49.2%
OT
70.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 11:43 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:51 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:09 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:10 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:09 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |