Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Zacha 51.8% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 53.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 54.8%
Neutral zone
Zacha 56.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Staal
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Zacha
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
53.0% (700)
+3.2%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
54.1% (109)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
39.2% (74)
+3.5%
On power play, Staal has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Staal
Zacha
Home
55.4% (699)
51.6% (438)
Away
54.4% (702)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Staal
Zacha
P1
55.7%
57.0%
P2
54.7%
48.9%
P3
53.4%
50.5%
OT
70.0%
42.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |