Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.1% vs Zacha 51.9% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 58.8%
Defensive zone
Zacha 52.7%
Neutral zone
Zacha 57.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Staal
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Zacha
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (740)
53.7% (497)
+3.5%
Power Play
67.0% (88)
54.8% (84)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (187)
37.5% (64)
+6.4%
On power play, Staal has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Staal is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Staal shoots left. Zacha is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (371).
Home / Away
Staal
Zacha
Home
55.4% (518)
51.0% (335)
Away
55.7% (497)
53.5% (310)
By Period
Staal
Zacha
P1
53.6%
60.0%
P2
56.6%
48.1%
P3
55.7%
48.8%
OT
65.2%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Zacha
48.0%▼
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:08 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |