Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Poehling 48.0% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 80.1%
Defensive zone
Poehling 52.1%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
Staal
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Staal
Poehling
Last 5: Staal 3-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Poehling
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Staal
Poehling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
50.4% (680)
+5.8%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
58.3% (12)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
38.8% (219)
+3.9%
On power play, Staal has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Staal
Poehling
Home
55.4% (699)
47.4% (422)
Away
54.4% (702)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Staal
Poehling
P1
55.7%
53.3%
P2
54.7%
40.3%
P3
53.4%
50.0%
OT
70.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 01:05 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:01 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |