Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 55.0%). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Carrick 54.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 69.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 65.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 55.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 60.7%
39.3%
60.7%
Staal
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Staal
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Staal
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
2
0
Staal
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
55.5% (470)
+0.7%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
66.7% (3)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
50.0% (58)
-7.3%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Staal
Carrick
Home
55.4% (699)
58.6% (261)
Away
54.4% (702)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Staal
Carrick
P1
55.7%
55.9%
P2
54.7%
53.5%
P3
53.4%
55.6%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |