Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Carrick 52.2% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 86.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 50.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 64.7%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Staal
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Staal
Carrick
Last 10: Staal 8-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Staal
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
6
2
Staal
Carrick
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
52.2% (2,544)
+3.7%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
61.3% (75)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
50.8% (435)
-2.9%
On even strength, Staal has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Staal shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Staal
Carrick
Home
56.4% (9,699)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Staal
Carrick
P1
55.2%
51.8%
P2
55.9%
52.3%
P3
54.8%
52.6%
OT
56.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:47 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:01 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 15, 2023 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Dec 6, 2022 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |