Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Staal wins 65.0% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Thompson 45.2% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 77.4%
Defensive zone
Staal 93.6%
Neutral zone
Staal 83.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Staal
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Staal
Thompson
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
1
Staal
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
2
Staal
Thompson
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
3
2
Staal
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
44.6% (661)
+11.6%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
48.4% (95)
+17.6%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
33.3% (33)
+9.4%
On power play, Staal has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Staal is 65.0% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Staal shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Staal
Thompson
Home
55.4% (699)
45.7% (411)
Away
54.4% (702)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Staal
Thompson
P1
55.7%
47.7%
P2
54.7%
45.7%
P3
53.4%
40.5%
OT
70.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:43 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 02:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 01:05 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:21 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |