Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 24 meetings). Staal wins 58.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Thompson 42.8% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 55-21 in 76 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 94.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 98.4%
Neutral zone
Staal 96.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 96.6%
96.6%
3.4%
Staal
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
55
-
21
(76 meetings)
55
21
Staal
Thompson
Last 10: Staal 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
20
4
Staal
Thompson
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
15
6
Staal
Thompson
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
20
11
Staal
Thompson
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
42.9% (3,540)
+13.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
46.9% (373)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
33.6% (265)
+14.3%
On power play, Staal has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,583).
Staal shoots left. Thompson is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,029).
Home / Away
Staal
Thompson
Home
56.4% (9,699)
44.8% (2,135)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Staal
Thompson
P1
55.2%
44.4%
P2
55.9%
43.7%
P3
54.8%
40.0%
OT
56.2%
36.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:43 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 02:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:48 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 01:05 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 13:21 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:38 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 13:54 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 10:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |