Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 82.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 60.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Staal
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
5
1
Staal
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Staal
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
58.7% (858)
-2.5%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
55.8% (285)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (253)
62.9% (35)
-20.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
55.4% (699)
60.1% (599)
Away
54.4% (702)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
55.7%
52.4%
P2
54.7%
63.9%
P3
53.4%
58.5%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 18:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |