Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 67 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Hertl 54.3% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 80-77 in 157 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 67.6%
Defensive zone
Staal 60.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Staal
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
77
-
80
(157 meetings)
77
80
Staal
Hertl
Last 10: Staal 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
24
43
Staal
Hertl
67 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
31
14
Staal
Hertl
45 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
22
23
Staal
Hertl
45 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
53.9% (8,303)
+2.0%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
59.2% (1,995)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
46.3% (806)
+1.6%
On power play, Staal has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Staal
Hertl
Home
56.4% (9,699)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Staal
Hertl
P1
55.2%
53.6%
P2
55.9%
54.2%
P3
54.8%
55.3%
OT
56.2%
46.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 18:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:30 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 3 | 09:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 17:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |