Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Novak 42.5% (+14.1%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 13-13 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 72.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 75.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 50.4%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
13
(26 meetings)
13
13
Staal
Novak
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Staal
Novak
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Staal
Novak
12 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
Novak
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (989)
40.4% (408)
+15.8%
Power Play
66.0% (159)
45.5% (33)
+20.5%
On power play, Staal has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (970).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
55.4% (699)
42.0% (212)
Away
54.4% (702)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
55.7%
41.9%
P2
54.7%
39.3%
P3
53.4%
42.1%
OT
70.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:46 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:16 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 11:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |