Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings). Staal wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Novak 43.0% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Staal leads 21-15 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 64.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 94.3%
Neutral zone
Staal 87.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 84.3%
84.3%
15.7%
Staal
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
15
(36 meetings)
21
15
Staal
Novak
Last 10: Staal 6-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
4
5
Staal
Novak
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
8
6
Staal
Novak
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
9
4
Staal
Novak
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (14,654)
41.8% (1,568)
+14.1%
Power Play
62.7% (1,762)
51.5% (134)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (2,907)
50.0% (2)
-2.1%
On even strength, Staal has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Staal is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (12,805).
Staal shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Staal
Novak
Home
56.4% (9,699)
45.1% (831)
Away
54.3% (9,689)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Staal
Novak
P1
55.2%
43.7%
P2
55.9%
42.8%
P3
54.8%
41.1%
OT
56.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
52.0%▬
52.5%
55.3%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:46 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 13:08 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 12:59 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:30 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 07:16 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 04:26 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 11:30 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:35 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 04:12 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:17 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 16:47 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |