Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kozak on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Kozak 48.6% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 53.1%
Defensive zone
Kozak 57.2%
Neutral zone
Kozak 56.0%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Staal
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Staal
Kozak
Last 9: Staal 4-5 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Kozak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
1
4
Staal
Kozak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (14,405)
48.2% (382)
+7.8%
Power Play
62.6% (1,691)
57.1% (7)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (2,841)
46.9% (32)
+1.2%
On even strength, Staal has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Staal is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (12,525).
Staal shoots left. Kozak is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Staal
Kozak
Home
56.4% (9,518)
47.2% (216)
Away
54.4% (9,484)
49.3% (205)
By Period
Staal
Kozak
P1
55.1%
55.1%
P2
56.0%
43.7%
P3
55.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
43.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.4%
Kozak
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 16:33 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 15:35 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 13:04 | Offensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Jan 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |