Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Cates 43.2% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 92.3%
Defensive zone
Norris 81.2%
Neutral zone
Norris 88.4%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 91.0%
91.0%
9.0%
Norris
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Norris
Cates
Last 9: Norris 7-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
5
1
Norris
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
2
1
Norris
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
44.1% (2,786)
+8.4%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
42.9% (254)
+10.5%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
34.9% (373)
+10.5%
On power play, Norris has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,419).
Norris shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Norris
Cates
Home
53.1% (1,896)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Norris
Cates
P1
55.5%
44.5%
P2
51.5%
43.7%
P3
50.1%
41.2%
OT
39.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
53.3%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 14, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 2 | 09:57 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:21 | Offensive | Josh Norris |