Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.3%
Defensive zone
Norris 81.9%
Neutral zone
Norris 55.7%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Norris
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
Norris
Stamkos
Last 10: Norris 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Norris
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
4
1
Norris
Stamkos
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
2
1
Norris
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
49.3% (670)
+4.3%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
53.7% (121)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
33.3% (3)
+19.8%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Norris is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Norris shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Norris
Stamkos
Home
53.6% (373)
54.0% (400)
Away
54.1% (394)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Norris
Stamkos
P1
61.8%
48.6%
P2
51.7%
54.5%
P3
49.8%
45.4%
OT
27.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
53.8%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:49 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:21 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |