Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Norris wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 17-12 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 65.0%
Defensive zone
Norris 53.3%
Neutral zone
Norris 51.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Norris
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
12
(29 meetings)
17
12
Norris
Stamkos
Last 10: Norris 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
5
Norris
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
9
3
Norris
Stamkos
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
5
4
Norris
Stamkos
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
50.5% (9,825)
+2.0%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
55.2% (1,729)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
49.6% (827)
-4.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Norris is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,321).
Norris shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Norris
Stamkos
Home
53.1% (1,896)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Norris
Stamkos
P1
55.5%
49.2%
P2
51.5%
52.7%
P3
50.1%
50.9%
OT
39.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:08 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 06:08 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 02:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:49 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 16:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 15:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:11 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 06:43 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:21 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 08:27 | Offensive | Josh Norris |