Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Novak 42.5% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 58.9%
Defensive zone
Norris 85.7%
Neutral zone
Norris 81.2%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 74.5%
74.5%
25.5%
Norris
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Norris
Novak
Last 6: Norris 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
2
1
Norris
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
40.4% (408)
+10.1%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
45.5% (33)
+2.1%
On even strength, Norris has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Norris is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Norris shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Norris
Novak
Home
48.1% (233)
42.0% (212)
Away
51.6% (246)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Norris
Novak
P1
53.1%
41.9%
P2
49.2%
39.3%
P3
48.4%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.5%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |