Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Novak 43.0% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 62.2%
Defensive zone
Norris 88.5%
Neutral zone
Norris 84.7%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Norris
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Norris
Novak
Last 8: Norris 5-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
3
2
Norris
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,089)
41.8% (1,568)
+10.7%
Power Play
53.4% (412)
51.5% (134)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
50.0% (2)
-4.6%
On even strength, Norris has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,419).
Norris shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Norris
Novak
Home
53.1% (1,896)
45.1% (831)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Norris
Novak
P1
55.5%
43.7%
P2
51.5%
42.8%
P3
50.1%
41.1%
OT
39.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.3%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:09 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:58 | Neutral | Josh Norris |