Justin Dowling vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Dowling wins 46.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.9% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 52.5%
Defensive zone
Dowling 64.0%
Neutral zone
Dowling 61.4%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Dowling
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Dowling
Stamkos
Last 8: Dowling 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Dowling
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowling
1
0
Dowling
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Dowling
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (652)
50.5% (9,825)
-1.1%
Power Play
40.6% (32)
55.2% (1,729)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
49.6% (827)
-16.3%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowling is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Dowling shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Dowling
Stamkos
Home
48.2% (301)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
49.2% (392)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Dowling
Stamkos
P1
47.6%
49.2%
P2
50.4%
52.7%
P3
48.3%
50.9%
Final 5 min
52.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.8%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:58 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Justin Dowling |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:36 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |