Justin Hryckowian vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Justin Hryckowian holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hryckowian 54.2% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 79.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 75.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 73.3%
26.7%
73.3%
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Last 8: Hryckowian 1-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
4
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.4% (243)
46.1% (11,264)
+12.3%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
53.2% (1,421)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (30)
42.8% (502)
-9.5%
On even strength, Hryckowian has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hryckowian is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (137).
Hryckowian shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
Home / Away
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
Home
57.8% (147)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
53.3% (135)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Hryckowian
MacKinnon
P1
48.7%
47.4%
P2
64.8%
46.6%
P3
49.4%
46.1%
OT
0.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hryckowian
48.0%▼
55.0%
55.7%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 19:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 10:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Justin Hryckowian |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |